Knockout Stages
Simulated progression probabilities for every team through the tournament bracket.
#1
Spain
Group H
Rating: 2148ATT: 2.73DEF: 0.3924%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
76%
2nd Place
21%
3rd Place
3%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
99%
Round of 16
79%
Quarter Finals
60%
Semi Finals
45%
Final
33%
#2
Argentina
Group J
Rating: 2073ATT: 2.34DEF: 0.3113%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
66%
2nd Place
22%
3rd Place
9%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
95%
Round of 16
62%
Quarter Finals
47%
Semi Finals
34%
Final
23%
#3
France
Group I
Rating: 2053ATT: 2.37DEF: 0.4410%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
47%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
18%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
89%
Round of 16
63%
Quarter Finals
43%
Semi Finals
30%
Final
17%
#4
Mexico
Group A
Rating: 2058ATT: 1.74DEF: 0.466%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
69%
2nd Place
25%
3rd Place
6%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
99%
Round of 16
71%
Quarter Finals
43%
Semi Finals
21%
Final
11%
#5
England
Group L
Rating: 2008ATT: 2.16DEF: 0.336%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
52%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
15%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
94%
Round of 16
64%
Quarter Finals
36%
Semi Finals
18%
Final
11%
#6
Colombia
Group K
Rating: 2002ATT: 2.07DEF: 0.415%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
49%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
14%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
90%
Round of 16
58%
Quarter Finals
35%
Semi Finals
20%
Final
11%
#7
Brazil
Group C
Rating: 1967ATT: 2.61DEF: 0.364%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
38%
2nd Place
35%
3rd Place
20%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
88%
Round of 16
60%
Quarter Finals
35%
Semi Finals
19%
Final
9%
#8
Germany
Group E
Rating: 1931ATT: 2.53DEF: 0.554%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
63%
2nd Place
25%
3rd Place
12%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
99%
Round of 16
64%
Quarter Finals
34%
Semi Finals
19%
Final
8%
#9
Norway
Group I
Rating: 1942ATT: 1.74DEF: 0.623%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
27%
2nd Place
31%
3rd Place
28%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
78%
Round of 16
45%
Quarter Finals
26%
Semi Finals
14%
Final
6%
#10
Belgium
Group G
Rating: 1917ATT: 2.30DEF: 0.513%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
55%
2nd Place
26%
3rd Place
13%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
92%
Round of 16
57%
Quarter Finals
30%
Semi Finals
14%
Final
7%
#11
Portugal
Group K
Rating: 1943ATT: 2.24DEF: 0.443%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
36%
2nd Place
35%
3rd Place
19%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
85%
Round of 16
48%
Quarter Finals
25%
Semi Finals
12%
Final
6%
#12
Japan
Group F
Rating: 1922ATT: 2.24DEF: 0.442%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
37%
2nd Place
36%
3rd Place
20%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
90%
Round of 16
46%
Quarter Finals
26%
Semi Finals
13%
Final
5%
#13
Netherlands
Group F
Rating: 1918ATT: 2.34DEF: 0.502%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
36%
2nd Place
37%
3rd Place
22%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
90%
Round of 16
45%
Quarter Finals
25%
Semi Finals
12%
Final
5%
#14
Senegal
Group I
Rating: 1928ATT: 1.69DEF: 0.462%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
22%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
31%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
73%
Round of 16
41%
Quarter Finals
23%
Semi Finals
12%
Final
5%
#15
United States
Group D
Rating: 1880ATT: 1.88DEF: 0.592%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
56%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
13%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
98%
Round of 16
59%
Quarter Finals
28%
Semi Finals
12%
Final
5%
#16
Switzerland
Group B
Rating: 1920ATT: 1.89DEF: 0.572%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
37%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
26%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
81%
Round of 16
51%
Quarter Finals
25%
Semi Finals
11%
Final
4%
#17
Uruguay
Group H
Rating: 1870ATT: 1.79DEF: 0.441%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
21%
2nd Place
57%
3rd Place
17%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
89%
Round of 16
39%
Quarter Finals
20%
Semi Finals
9%
Final
4%
#18
Croatia
Group L
Rating: 1891ATT: 1.89DEF: 0.541%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
28%
2nd Place
35%
3rd Place
28%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
83%
Round of 16
43%
Quarter Finals
18%
Semi Finals
7%
Final
3%
#19
Ecuador
Group E
Rating: 1938ATT: 1.49DEF: 0.481%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
4%
2nd Place
25%
3rd Place
51%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
65%
Round of 16
32%
Quarter Finals
17%
Semi Finals
8%
Final
3%
#20
Australia
Group D
Rating: 1776ATT: 1.74DEF: 0.471%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
40%
2nd Place
44%
3rd Place
15%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
96%
Round of 16
55%
Quarter Finals
23%
Semi Finals
9%
Final
4%
#21
Canada
Group B
Rating: 1931ATT: 1.52DEF: 0.551%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
44%
2nd Place
33%
3rd Place
17%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
90%
Round of 16
52%
Quarter Finals
23%
Semi Finals
9%
Final
3%
#22
Turkey
Group D
Rating: 1958ATT: 1.71DEF: 0.701%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
3%
2nd Place
17%
3rd Place
45%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
48%
Round of 16
27%
Quarter Finals
12%
Semi Finals
6%
Final
2%
#23
Scotland
Group C
Rating: 1816ATT: 1.37DEF: 0.681%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
38%
2nd Place
28%
3rd Place
31%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
90%
Round of 16
48%
Quarter Finals
21%
Semi Finals
8%
Final
3%
#24
Morocco
Group C
Rating: 1813ATT: 1.68DEF: 0.371%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
23%
2nd Place
33%
3rd Place
31%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
78%
Round of 16
40%
Quarter Finals
18%
Semi Finals
7%
Final
2%
#25
Ivory Coast
Group E
Rating: 1769ATT: 1.55DEF: 0.541%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
33%
2nd Place
45%
3rd Place
21%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
94%
Round of 16
42%
Quarter Finals
17%
Semi Finals
7%
Final
2%
#26
South Korea
Group A
Rating: 1740ATT: 1.78DEF: 0.51<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
29%
2nd Place
58%
3rd Place
11%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
96%
Round of 16
46%
Quarter Finals
16%
Semi Finals
5%
Final
1%
#27
Austria
Group J
Rating: 1810ATT: 1.62DEF: 0.63<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
15%
2nd Place
31%
3rd Place
30%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
65%
Round of 16
22%
Quarter Finals
9%
Semi Finals
3%
Final
1%
#28
Panama
Group L
Rating: 1804ATT: 1.45DEF: 0.71<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
18%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
37%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
74%
Round of 16
29%
Quarter Finals
9%
Semi Finals
3%
Final
1%
#29
Iran
Group G
Rating: 1745ATT: 1.76DEF: 0.45<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
22%
2nd Place
32%
3rd Place
29%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
74%
Round of 16
28%
Quarter Finals
9%
Semi Finals
2%
Final
1%
#30
Algeria
Group J
Rating: 1770ATT: 1.84DEF: 0.58<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
12%
2nd Place
27%
3rd Place
31%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
58%
Round of 16
17%
Quarter Finals
7%
Semi Finals
2%
Final
1%
#31
Egypt
Group G
Rating: 1705ATT: 1.39DEF: 0.48<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
17%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
32%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
68%
Round of 16
22%
Quarter Finals
6%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#32
Czechia
Group A
Rating: 1727ATT: 1.55DEF: 0.70<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
13%
3rd Place
64%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
56%
Round of 16
18%
Quarter Finals
5%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#33
Sweden
Group F
Rating: 1652ATT: 1.68DEF: 0.67<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
26%
2nd Place
25%
3rd Place
47%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
94%
Round of 16
23%
Quarter Finals
6%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#34
Paraguay
Group D
Rating: 1820ATT: 1.29DEF: 0.59<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
1%
2nd Place
10%
3rd Place
26%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
27%
Round of 16
11%
Quarter Finals
3%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#35
Uzbekistan
Group K
Rating: 1729ATT: 1.39DEF: 0.57<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
9%
2nd Place
19%
3rd Place
34%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
47%
Round of 16
14%
Quarter Finals
4%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#36
Jordan
Group J
Rating: 1698ATT: 1.43DEF: 0.69<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
8%
2nd Place
21%
3rd Place
30%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
46%
Round of 16
11%
Quarter Finals
3%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#37
DR Congo
Group K
Rating: 1688ATT: 1.14DEF: 0.62<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
7%
2nd Place
16%
3rd Place
32%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
40%
Round of 16
11%
Quarter Finals
3%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#38
Iraq
Group I
Rating: 1686ATT: 1.14DEF: 0.59<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
4%
2nd Place
10%
3rd Place
23%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
28%
Round of 16
8%
Quarter Finals
2%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#39
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Group B
Rating: 1618ATT: 1.15DEF: 0.84<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
16%
2nd Place
28%
3rd Place
36%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
71%
Round of 16
21%
Quarter Finals
4%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#40
Haiti
Group C
Rating: 1604ATT: 1.40DEF: 0.82<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
5%
3rd Place
18%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
17%
Round of 16
4%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#41
Curacao
Group E
Rating: 1639ATT: 1.08DEF: 0.96<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
1%
2nd Place
5%
3rd Place
16%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
14%
Round of 16
3%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#42
Tunisia
Group F
Rating: 1620ATT: 1.31DEF: 0.54<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
1%
2nd Place
2%
3rd Place
12%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
9%
Round of 16
1%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#43
Cabo Verde
Group H
Rating: 1539ATT: 1.05DEF: 0.760%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
11%
3rd Place
41%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
29%
Round of 16
4%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#44
Ghana
Group L
Rating: 1510ATT: 1.24DEF: 0.680%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
6%
3rd Place
19%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
17%
Round of 16
2%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#45
New Zealand
Group G
Rating: 1522ATT: 1.43DEF: 0.670%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
5%
2nd Place
13%
3rd Place
26%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
33%
Round of 16
5%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#46
Qatar
Group B
Rating: 1339ATT: 1.35DEF: 0.880%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
3%
2nd Place
9%
3rd Place
21%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
25%
Round of 16
3%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
0%
#47
South Africa
Group A
Rating: 1403ATT: 1.17DEF: 0.670%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
<1%
2nd Place
4%
3rd Place
18%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
12%
Round of 16
1%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
0%
#48
Saudi Arabia
Group H
Rating: 1532ATT: 1.16DEF: 0.670%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
11%
3rd Place
40%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
28%
Round of 16
4%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
| # | Flag | Team | Grp | Rating | Att | Def | 4th | 3th | 2nd | 1st | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | H | 2148 | 2.73 | 0.39 | 1% | 3% | 21% | 76% | 99% | 79% | 60% | 45% | 33% | 24% | |
| 2 | Argentina | J | 2073 | 2.34 | 0.31 | 4% | 9% | 22% | 66% | 95% | 62% | 47% | 34% | 23% | 13% | |
| 3 | France | I | 2053 | 2.37 | 0.44 | 7% | 18% | 29% | 47% | 89% | 63% | 43% | 30% | 17% | 10% | |
| 4 | Mexico | A | 2058 | 1.74 | 0.46 | 0% | 6% | 25% | 69% | 99% | 71% | 43% | 21% | 11% | 6% | |
| 5 | England | L | 2008 | 2.16 | 0.33 | 4% | 15% | 29% | 52% | 94% | 64% | 36% | 18% | 11% | 6% | |
| 6 | Colombia | K | 2002 | 2.07 | 0.41 | 6% | 14% | 30% | 49% | 90% | 58% | 35% | 20% | 11% | 5% | |
| 7 | Brazil | C | 1967 | 2.61 | 0.36 | 7% | 20% | 35% | 38% | 88% | 60% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | |
| 8 | Germany | E | 1931 | 2.53 | 0.55 | 0% | 12% | 25% | 63% | 99% | 64% | 34% | 19% | 8% | 4% | |
| 9 | Norway | I | 1942 | 1.74 | 0.62 | 14% | 28% | 31% | 27% | 78% | 45% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | |
| 10 | Belgium | G | 1917 | 2.30 | 0.51 | 5% | 13% | 26% | 55% | 92% | 57% | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3% | |
| 11 | Portugal | K | 1943 | 2.24 | 0.44 | 10% | 19% | 35% | 36% | 85% | 48% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 3% | |
| 12 | Japan | F | 1922 | 2.24 | 0.44 | 6% | 20% | 36% | 37% | 90% | 46% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | |
| 13 | Netherlands | F | 1918 | 2.34 | 0.50 | 6% | 22% | 37% | 36% | 90% | 45% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | |
| 14 | Senegal | I | 1928 | 1.69 | 0.46 | 17% | 31% | 29% | 22% | 73% | 41% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | |
| 15 | United States | D | 1880 | 1.88 | 0.59 | 1% | 13% | 30% | 56% | 98% | 59% | 28% | 12% | 5% | 2% | |
| 16 | Switzerland | B | 1920 | 1.89 | 0.57 | 7% | 26% | 30% | 37% | 81% | 51% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | |
| 17 | Uruguay | H | 1870 | 1.79 | 0.44 | 5% | 17% | 57% | 21% | 89% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | |
| 18 | Croatia | L | 1891 | 1.89 | 0.54 | 9% | 28% | 35% | 28% | 83% | 43% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
| 19 | Ecuador | E | 1938 | 1.49 | 0.48 | 20% | 51% | 25% | 4% | 65% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | |
| 20 | Australia | D | 1776 | 1.74 | 0.47 | 2% | 15% | 44% | 40% | 96% | 55% | 23% | 9% | 4% | 1% | |
| 21 | Canada | B | 1931 | 1.52 | 0.55 | 6% | 17% | 33% | 44% | 90% | 52% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | |
| 22 | Turkey | D | 1958 | 1.71 | 0.70 | 35% | 45% | 17% | 3% | 48% | 27% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | |
| 23 | Scotland | C | 1816 | 1.37 | 0.68 | 3% | 31% | 28% | 38% | 90% | 48% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | |
| 24 | Morocco | C | 1813 | 1.68 | 0.37 | 14% | 31% | 33% | 23% | 78% | 40% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | |
| 25 | Ivory Coast | E | 1769 | 1.55 | 0.54 | 1% | 21% | 45% | 33% | 94% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | |
| 26 | South Korea | A | 1740 | 1.78 | 0.51 | 2% | 11% | 58% | 29% | 96% | 46% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | |
| 27 | Austria | J | 1810 | 1.62 | 0.63 | 24% | 30% | 31% | 15% | 65% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | |
| 28 | Panama | L | 1804 | 1.45 | 0.71 | 15% | 37% | 29% | 18% | 74% | 29% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | |
| 29 | Iran | G | 1745 | 1.76 | 0.45 | 17% | 29% | 32% | 22% | 74% | 28% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | |
| 30 | Algeria | J | 1770 | 1.84 | 0.58 | 30% | 31% | 27% | 12% | 58% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | |
| 31 | Egypt | G | 1705 | 1.39 | 0.48 | 22% | 32% | 29% | 17% | 68% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | Czechia | A | 1727 | 1.55 | 0.70 | 21% | 64% | 13% | 2% | 56% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | Sweden | F | 1652 | 1.68 | 0.67 | 2% | 47% | 25% | 26% | 94% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | Paraguay | D | 1820 | 1.29 | 0.59 | 63% | 26% | 10% | 1% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | Uzbekistan | K | 1729 | 1.39 | 0.57 | 38% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | Jordan | J | 1698 | 1.43 | 0.69 | 42% | 30% | 21% | 8% | 46% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | DR Congo | K | 1688 | 1.14 | 0.62 | 46% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 40% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | Iraq | I | 1686 | 1.14 | 0.59 | 62% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1618 | 1.15 | 0.84 | 20% | 36% | 28% | 16% | 71% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | Haiti | C | 1604 | 1.40 | 0.82 | 75% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | Curacao | E | 1639 | 1.08 | 0.96 | 79% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | Tunisia | F | 1620 | 1.31 | 0.54 | 85% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | Cabo Verde | H | 1539 | 1.05 | 0.76 | 46% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 29% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | Ghana | L | 1510 | 1.24 | 0.68 | 73% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | New Zealand | G | 1522 | 1.43 | 0.67 | 56% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 33% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | Qatar | B | 1339 | 1.35 | 0.88 | 67% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | South Africa | A | 1403 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 78% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | Saudi Arabia | H | 1532 | 1.16 | 0.67 | 48% | 40% | 11% | 2% | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |